Michigan Wolverines, Big Ten Conference
13-9 overall, 6-4 Big Ten play (7th place)
Good wins: December 30 vs. Illinois
Bad losses: December 6 vs. NJIT, December 9 vs. Eastern Michigan, and February 1 in overtime at Michigan State
RPI Breakdown: 71 overall, but a meager 132 in non-conference play.
They have no wins in the RPI top 100 and losing two of their big name stars in Caris LaVert and Derrick Walton, Jr. does not look good. More than likely, if Jon Beilien does not right the ship soon, it will be NIT bound for the Wolverines. And that is something that new football coach Jim Harbaugh has very little control over.
Percentage chance of making the Big Dance: 25%
UConn Huskies, American Athletic Conference
11-9 overall, 4-4 in conference play (6th place)
Good wins: November 21 on neutral court vs. Dayton and January 10 vs. Cincinnati
Bad losses: February 1 at Houston
RPI: 105 overall, 99 in non-conference games.
Kevin Ollie’s group is basically on Selection Sunday life support. They would have to hope everyone else in front of them collapses big time if they want to earn a shot at repeating as national champs.
If not, they will join a rather unique group that includes many other schools that have won one year, but missed out the next.
Percentage chance of reaching the Big Dance: 30%
Miami Hurricanes, ACC
14-7 overall, 4-4 in ACC play (9th place)
Good wins: November 17 at Florida, December 2 vs. Illinois, January 13 at Duke, and January 20 vs. North Carolina State.
Bad losses: January 3 vs. Virginia and January 17 at Notre Dame.
RPI: 56 overall, 84 in non-conference play.
Update, as of 11 p.m. Eastern time:
With the ‘Canes losing a close game at home to Louisville, Miami pretty much has to win the ACC postseason tournament or at least get to the final game to offset their six prior victories against RPI top 100 schools may not be enough. But as Angel Rodriguez goes, so go the Hurricanes.
Percentage chance of reaching the Big Dance: 20%. They looked so good early on, but they may suffer the same fate as Clemson did a few years back when the Tigers had an undefeated non-conference slate, but stunk up things in the final two months playing under .500 play in conference play.